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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Jul 25
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Brazil Economics databank Jul 15
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Central America databank Jul 31
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Chile databank Jul 17
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Aug 1
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Ecuador databank Jul 22
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Gulf Countries databank Aug 15
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Hungary databank Jul 21
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Jul 1
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Panama databank Jul 17
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Peru databank Aug 14
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Philippines databank Aug 6
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Poland databank Jul 16
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Russia Economics databank Aug 14
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South Africa databank Jul 11
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Turkey databank Aug 11
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Ukraine databank Aug 15
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Venezuela databank Jul 7
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Oil and gas prices set for possible volatility
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 May 2019
At the Belt and Road Forum it was announced that 30% of Novatek's Arctic LNG will go to Total, a CNPC subsidiary and CNOCC. These three companies will get 10% apiece. Total's share was known before the forum. Novatek's Arctic LNG will therefore be mostly Russian owned. Saudi Aramco had hoped to b...
Indonesia: Waiting for the final count
INDONESIA · Report · 01 May 2019
Immediately after the people cast their votes on April 17, 2019, there was a short period of uncertainty, after one presidential candidate claimed his victory several times in the race for the presidency. Acting as a real statesman, President Jokowi gave a short speech, in which in general he wel...
Industrial output rebounds
CHINA · Report · 30 Apr 2019
The Chinese economy began to rebound in Q1, with GDP up 6.4% y/y, flat on Q4 2018. Industrial output was up 6.5% y/y, up 0.8 pps from Q4. Then in March, GDP rose a powerful 8.5% y/y, up 1.4 pps from Q4, to its fastest growth rate since August 2014. Investment, up 6.3% y/y, showed no clear tre...
The MNB will start to buy corporate bonds in July
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Apr 2019
Pretty much as we predicted yesterday (and others slightly earlier), the Monetary Council left all MNB interest rates untouched today, in addition to saying nothing new about the prospective use of FX swaps to tighten liquidity. Moreover, they made absolutely no mentioning of any need to tighten ...
CBRT: Evasive, unconvincing
TURKEY · In Brief · 30 Apr 2019 · 1 response
The CBRT released the year's second Inflation Report today. The 2019 year-end CPI-inflation forecast was kept at 14.6% (midpoint of 12.1%-17.1% band), so was the 2020 year-end forecast -- at 8.2% (midpoint of 5.1%-11.3% band). As usual, the Bank sees inflation slowing to the official target of 5%...
Russian companies raising wages
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Apr 2019
Korn Ferry has shown that most Russian firms plan to increase wages in 2019. The working population is falling therefore employers are obliged to bid for workers. Topline inflation is currently 5.2% and wages hikes are forecast to average 4.5%.In the tech sector labor is a seller's market not a b...
Economics: April data confirms a slowing trend
MEXICO · Report · 29 Apr 2019
With the coincident index accelerating its downtrend of the past nine months and the leading indicator also slipping lower, numerous multilateral international institutions and analysts have continued to scale back their estimates of Mexican GDP growth, as have domestic authorities including Banc...
Politics: Missteps and looming crises
MEXICO · Report · 29 Apr 2019
As President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is faced by the usual dynamics of any new administration – confronted with a situation considerably more complicated than the new head of state and other incoming officials had anticipated, the commission by new officials of numerous unforced errors, and s...
Pension reform calculations and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Apr 2019
A week of reduced legislative activity due to the Wednesday holiday (Labor Day). Labor unions organize demonstrations throughout the country against Pension Reform. President Bolsonaro may sign provisional measures to stimulate economy. A reduction of the import tax for capital goods may be annou...
Arko poll reflects improved Executive-Legislative relationship
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Apr 2019 · 1 response
The relationship between the Executive and Legislative branches has improved. This is the conclusion drawn from an Arko Advice poll conducted among 109 federal representatives on April 23-25. Positive evaluations of the government increased from 28.43% to 38.53% in April, while negative evaluati...
Government tries to stabilize the exchange rate as expectations worsen
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 29 Apr 2019 · 1 response
During the first quarter of 2019, the Argentine economy performed worse than expected by the government, by the IMF and by most private forecasters. Inflation was much higher than anticipated. The exchange rate, in pesos per dollar, began depreciating rapidly in March towards the upper limit o...
The Real: Excessive fluctuation? Excessive depreciation?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Apr 2019 · 1 response
Last week there was a particular strengthening of the dollar against other currencies. The dollar appreciation combined with the domestic risk due to the fiscal and political uncertainties hastened the depreciation of the Brazilian real, which exceeded the level of R$4.00/US$, prompting clamor fo...
A rate hike appears increasingly possible on May 20th
ISRAEL · Report · 29 Apr 2019
We currently see a 50% probability of a rate hike on May 20th due to robust growth and accelerating inflation. We see inflation stabilizing at 1.5% y/y in April and in May. Netanyahu is working on a two-year fiscal scheme in 2020-2021 in order to support political stability through 2022. Hig...
No policy change is likely at tomorrow's rate-setting meeting
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Apr 2019
Following a relatively long Easter recess, during which nothing much happened in Hungary, except for the political theatre preceding the late May European election, economic decision-making is to become more active again. Tomorrow (on April 30), the Monetary Council's monthly rate-setting meeting...
Will a new President and ally be enough to boost the economy?
PANAMA · Report · 28 Apr 2019
The Monthly Index of Economic Activity increased 3.65% YTD (the result of 3.57% in January and 3.74% in February), lower than what was expected by the market. The main concern for the first half of the year relates to the El Niño phenomenon and the drought that comes with it. The agricultural pro...