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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

AKP under pressure on many fronts
TURKEY · Report · 28 Apr 2019 · 1 response

There is now sufficiently heavy news flow to take rumors of Davutoglu and/or Babacan forming new parties seriously. There are other disgruntled groups in AKP, too, which is forcing Erdogan into indecisiveness on several policy areas. One of these is the fate of the alliance with MHP, the other wh...

Positive feedback loops
INDIA · In Brief · 28 Apr 2019

The key thing to watch for in the financial stress is the positive feedback loops. Here are six pieces that we see today.1. It is believed that one of the chunks of cash that ADAG group hopes to obtain in coming weeks is Rs.20 billion from Zee group, which has itself defaulted on some payments. T...

Credit stress in ADAG group
INDIA · In Brief · 27 Apr 2019

In the last year of Indian financial stress, we have seen defaults by IL&FS, Zee Group, Supertech, etc.The biggest business house facing difficulties, though, is Anil Dhirubai Ambani Group ("ADAG"). This group comprises the following firms: Reliance Communications, Reliance Capital, Reliance Infr...

Parched
CHILE · Report · 26 Apr 2019

The Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) showed unfavorable results in February, although we should not rush to pessimistic conclusions. Excluding the mining sector, the IMACEC expanded a modest 2.4%, but above the 1.4% for total IMACEC. Yet the trend in the seasonally adjusted IMACEC that...

From the Arctic trade route - the shape of Sino-Russian relations
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 26 Apr 2019

The Russian ambassador to China is seeking Chinese co-operation on developing the Arctic trade route. Andrei Denisov, speaking on April 18, said this was linked to negotiations about Russian gas sales called Power of Siberia Two. Power of Siberia One is a gas deal due to expire in December this y...

Attempt to rescind Revolut's banking license
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Apr 2019

Lithuania is considering taking away Revolut's banking license. Revolut is a digital banking app that has shaken up micro finance. Revolut attained a banking license in December 2018. Revolut announced plans to start consumer lending and commission free trading in stocks. Revolut's license was gr...

Beijing’s debt “troubleshooter”: The China Development Bank
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 26 Apr 2019 · 1 response

We have been arguing for the rising importance in China of private capital to support state activities and GDP growth in general. However, the role of the state in China’s capital flows should not be dismissed. One institution that is playing a growing role in China is the China Development Bank,...

Maduro survives blackouts but feels the international pressure
VENEZUELA · Report · 26 Apr 2019 · 1 response

After 15 years of mismanagement, the national electric system collapsed last March, causing blackouts that left the country virtually without water, functioning hospitals, public transportation, or communications. There is now electricity rationing everywhere except Caracas, where Maduro fears so...

Moreno under attack
ECUADOR · Report · 25 Apr 2019

The Social Christian Party came out as the absolute winner of the recent local government elections, while the official party, Alianza Pais (AP), suffered a shameful defeat. This defeat was on President Moreno´s head, according to party members, as they felt like “political orphans” due to the la...

The NBU cuts policy rate by 0.5 ppt down to 17.5%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 25 Apr 2019

On April 25, the NBU Board approved policy rate cut by 0.5 ppt down to 17.5%. Relatively smooth election process, steady national currency and further inflation easing (+0.9% m/m or +8.6% y/y in March) are behind the decision. But peaceful elections without confrontation, probably, were the main ...

CBRT bafflingly softens language
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Apr 2019 · 2 responses

In line with expectations, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the policy rate (one-week repo rate) at 24% (simple) today (see chart). In the statement, the Bank’s assessment on the economic outlook was almost unchanged compared to the previous one, but the MPC unexpectedly eased its languag...

EL SALVADOR: Stagnation and Mystery
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 24 Apr 2019

El Salvador’s economic growth/financial stability balance is clearly biased toward the former, as shown by modest real GDP growth averaging 2.5% y/y between 2010 and 2018. Expected growth won’t be different for 2019 and 2020. The roots of long-running stagnation are diverse, and reflected in pote...

North Korea leader visits Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Apr 2019

Kim Jong Un arrived in Vladivostok, Russia on April 25. The North Korean leader is in Russia's Far East to meet President Putin for the first time. North Korea and Russia have been allies since 1945. Sanctions on North Korea are biting, and a summit between Kim and Trump last month made no progre...

The CCJ approves the constitutionality of Pension Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Apr 2019

​On Tuesday afternoon, April 23, the Constitution and Justice Committee approved the report by Rep. Marcelo Freitas (PSL) with 48 favorable votes and 18 against. The result was significant and reveals the strength of the Centrão. Four points were removed from the original text: 1) the end of F...

Another uninspiring start to the year for South Africa, yet there is hope beyond the May general elections
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 24 Apr 2019

* South Africa’s growth: The increase in economic activity and hence the recovery in growth in South Africa didn’t quite turn out as expected in 2018. But South Africa had been poorly run for years, and the effects were bound to linger for some time. We expect economic growth for the first qua...

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