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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Peering into the parliamentary election
INDIA · Report · 24 Apr 2019

In this report, we sketch our views on the main questions surrounding the elections. What are the factors at work shaping the minds of voters? What are the polls saying? How precise are these forecasts? What will change in terms of policy in the next five years? What changes if a coalition govern...

​About elections, mobbing and fractures
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Apr 2019 · 1 response

The message of this Market Brief can be summarized in 2 sentences. The verdict on Istanbul elections will lag to next week, with no change in my prediction that with 60-70% odds Erdogan will concede defeat. There are several fractures in AKP, while the mobbing of CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu her...

US ending sanctions exemptions means a boost for Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Apr 2019

On April 22 the White House announced it was ending exemptions to its sanctions on Iran. Until now 8 countries have been able to buy Iranian oil without facing pushback from Washington. These included China, India, Turkey and others. The news led to a Brent crude price rise by 3.3.%. The RUR jump...

Essential CIS Politics: April 2019
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 23 Apr 2019

* Political novice Zelenskiy elected president of Ukraine. * Overall, economic news for Russia is rosy but the government is no more popular than before. * The resignation of the Kazakh president came sooner than expected. His replacement, Tokayev, called an early election. * Belarus...

Russia asks China to co-operate on Arctic trade route
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Apr 2019

The Russian ambassador to China is seeking Chinese co-operation on developing the Arctic trade route. Andrei Denisov, speaking on April 18, said this was linked to negotiations about Russian gas sales called Power of Siberia Two. Power of Siberia One is a gas deal due to expire in December this y...

BCV's designation as SDN
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 22 Apr 2019

The designation of the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) as a Specially Designated National and Blocked Person (SDN) by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) on 17 April 2019 focuses on the central bank's foreign reserve management. Licenses issued in conjunction with the designation exclude ...

Editing Pension Reform and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Apr 2019

The main item on the agenda in the Lower House is the Pension Reform vote in the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ). The government is dealing with the risk of a truckers’ strike. On Monday, the government may announce a set of measures to increase productivity, employment and economic acti...

Developments in financial stress
INDIA · Report · 22 Apr 2019

The defining problem of the Indian economy is the lack of private investment. A stressed financial system is one factor hampering private investment. In this note, we review the stress in a few components of the financial system. About 35% of the non-financial firms' balance sheet is under str...

The magnitude of the fiscal effort needed and the perspectives for success
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Apr 2019

​When the Temer administration realized that without controlling expenditures it would be impossible to end the explosive growth of the public debt, it submitted a proposed constitutional amendment to Congress in order to freeze primary spending in real terms. This was a correct choice, given tha...

A rate hike cannot be ruled out in May
ISRAEL · Report · 22 Apr 2019

Recent economic indicators point to fairly robust growth in Q1 2019, with exports rebounding, private consumption fairly steady and demand for new housing up. The last rate decision was a 4-1 vote, with all members noting the acceleration of the inflation environment. A rate hike in the next rat...

Exit Polls: Zelenskiy Wins with 73.2% Support
UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Apr 2019

Volodymyr Zelenskiy – 73.2% Petro Poroshenko – 25.3% The final result might differ a bit but the winner of the race is obvious. Variety of versions why Poroshenko got that dramatic defeat. My personal view, Ukrainians did not forgive his greediness and permissiveness for cronies. That’s why all a...

Cliffhanger weeks
TURKEY · Report · 21 Apr 2019 · 1 response

CHP’s Ekrem Imamoglu is sitting on the mayor’s throne, but not resting easy or on his laurels -- yet. Appeals by AKP-MHP should be ruled upon by the High Election Council by the end of the next week. AKP-MHP’s reasons for repeal are not convincing, but it will be the President who shall say the f...

Import substitution runs into difficulties
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Apr 2019

Putin's economic aide Andrei Belousov said that national projects are to use Russian equipment insofar as possible. These projects were announced in May 2018. Belousov ordered the Ministry of Trade and Industry to draw up a list of Russian equipment for these projects and to propose legislative a...

Last year’s deep pessimism seems to have abated
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 19 Apr 2019 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: * While China’s first quarter GDP growth came in above expectations, at 6.4 percent year on year, this does not represent the recovery in the underlying economy that many analysts are claiming, not because the growth numbers are fake but simply bec...

China’s private stimulus
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 19 Apr 2019

China has a significant economic “hangover” from the ten-year-old fiscal stimulus in 2009. That stimulus relied primarily on bank loans as a quick injection of capital to rejuvenate economic growth. Since then, policy has shifted through several phases and a variety of financial intermediaries an...

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