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Economics: Pemex posts mixed results for 2025, facing big challenges ahead
MEXICO · Report · 16 Mar 2026

At the end of last month, Pemex released its operating and financial results for the close of 2025. The report was presented under the company’s new legal status as a “public company” — previously known as a “state productive enterprise” — and within the framework of the reforms and new legislati...

The current account shows an improved external position in a volatile global environment
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 16 Mar 2026

Data released by the South African Reserve Bank indicates that the South African current account balance recorded a surplus for the first time since Q3-2023, as it switched from a deficit of R72 billion in the third quarter of 2025 to a surplus of R50.2 billion in the fourth quarter. As a ratio o...

Iran War Days 15–16: US strikes Kharg and Iran widens GCC targeting
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 16 Mar 2026

Highlights The US struck military targets on Kharg Island, Iran’s oil export hub. Iran said if the oil facilities were attacked, then it would target the regional oil facilities of US-allied companies; it also threatened UAE ports and residential locations in Qatar and Dubai, where it claimed US ...

It will probably get worse before it gets better
TURKEY · Report · 15 Mar 2026

As the war in Iran enters its third week, it has progressed faster, harder and broader in geographical scope than any expert imagined. This is now a war of attrition, with no clear outcome. To make matters worse, Trump seems to be wavering between his advisors who suggest a graceful exit, and tho...

On the short-term altar
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Mar 2026

In response to the increase in international prices of oil and derivatives, although Petrobras had not yet commented on a possible pass-through to domestic prices, the government announced measures to limit a potential impact on the price of diesel. It reduced to zero the PIS-Cofins tax levied...

GULF WEEKLY: Iranian strikes kill in four Gulf states, Brent at $100 despite IEA release, East-West Pipeline nears 7m b/d, Qatalum continues operations
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Mar 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Iran’s attacks on the GCC continued this week, but the cadence seems to have slowed somewhat. * There were fatalities from strikes in Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. * Sites hit included the Ruwais refinery (Abu D...

Next week in focus: February CPI, the 2026 state budget, and the third week of the war
ISRAEL · Report · 13 Mar 2026

Next week we focus on three closely linked developments: the war with Iran as it enters its third week, the February CPI to be released on Sunday, and the progress of the 2026 state budget. We estimate that the February CPI will rise by about 0.1%, still reflecting economic conditions prior to th...

Justice Zanin rejected the request to install a CPI on Banco Master, Haddad is expected to step down as Minister of Finance next week, and the federal government announced a reduction in taxes on diesel fuel
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Mar 2026

Justice Cristiano Zanin of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) rejected a request filed by Congressman Rodrigo Rollemberg (PSB-DF) seeking to compel the creation of a Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI) to investigate alleged irregularities involving Banco Master and Banco de Brasília (BRB). Des...

Increasing uncertainty
INDONESIA · Report · 13 Mar 2026

Indonesia has recently felt increasing uncertainty in the economy, especially related to government finance. The main reason for this is that the government continues to create new programs, for example, the Free Nutritious Meals program (known as "MBG") and the Red and White Village Cooperative....

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgia regains investor interest in 2025
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 13 Mar 2026

This week the Georgian statistical office reported the much awaited full-year (2025) data on FDI. Similar to the tourist numbers I discussed earlier, FDI has been the subject of intense discussion and speculation over the course of the last two years as the government and the opposition have offe...

Kast’s Blast from the Past
CHILE · In Brief · 12 Mar 2026

José Antonio Kast has entered Chile’s presidential palace, becoming the first president since Carlos Ibañez del Camp, who left office in 1958, to make the Moneda palace the presidential residence. The move is meant to be a sign of austerity and offer the promise of hard work. Like much of Kast’s ...

Justice Toffoli recused himself from the request to install a CPI on Banco Master, a new poll on the presidential succession was released, and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro’s candidacy continues to gain momentum
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Mar 2026

Justice Dias Toffoli of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) was randomly assigned to report on a writ of mandamus filed by Congressman Rodrigo Rollemberg (PSB-DF) seeking the installation of a Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI) to investigate Banco Master. However, Toffoli recused himself from ...

CBRT switches to a wait-and-see mode
TURKEY · Report · 12 Mar 2026

As expected, the CBRT/MPC kept the policy rate (together with the O/N lending and borrowing rates) unchanged today at 37%, stressing heightened geopolitical risks, the deterioration in the risk appetite and higher energy prices. In the statement, the reference to “step size” (regarding the magnit...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 12 Mar 2026

Feb 26 National gas company: QazaqGaz and the Qatari UCC Holding have developed a project design for the construction of a second gas processing plant at Kashagan with an annual capacity of 2.5 bcm. EBRD: The bank upgraded Kazakhstan's 2026 GDP growth forecast from 4.5% to 4.7%. Tengizchevroil: O...

Federal budget in 2M26: revenues lag the plan, spending is far ahead
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Mar 2026

The Ministry of Finance reported that in 2M26, the federal budget deficit reached nearly R3.5 trln, which was very close to the annual target of about R3.8 trln. In nominal total terms, revenues were down by 10.8% y-o-y while expenditures were up by 5.8% y-o-y. Oil-and-gas (O&G) revenues were dow...

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