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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Jul 11 -
Brazil Economics databank Jul 15
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Central America databank Jun 27
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Chile databank May 27
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Jul 7
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Dominican Republic databank Jun 18
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Ecuador databank Jun 20
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Gulf Countries databank Jul 11
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Hungary databank Jun 23
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Jul 1
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Jun 27
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Philippines databank Jul 8
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Poland databank Jul 16
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Russia Economics databank Jul 11
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South Africa databank Jul 11
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank Jul 7
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA: POLITICAL PASSIONS IN THE...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Entrenched polarization and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Jun 2025
The government may present party leaders with a proposal for a 10% across-the-board cut in tax benefits. According to Deputy Finance Minister Dario Durigan, the Manaus Free Trade Zone and personal income tax deductions would be preserved. Arthur Lira (PP-AL) is expected to present his report on t...
Politics: Tension on multiple fronts marks US-Mexican relations
MEXICO · Report · 23 Jun 2025
US-Mexican relations, while always having their ups and downs, are today marked by considerable tensions. Such tensions have been exacerbated in recent weeks due to Washington’s aggressiveness on three fronts. The first is immigration, with intensified ICE raids across the United States, a corres...
Poland and Ukraine spar over historiography: Ukraine’s WW II narratives trigger preventive Polish veto of EU and NATO accession
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 23 Jun 2025
• Poland is one of Ukraine’s strongest allies and highly opposed to Russia, but relations between Poland and Ukraine have been blighted by key issues. • Ukraine and Poland disagree over the commemoration of Ukrainian nationalists, who killed up to 100,000 Poles during WW II and afterwards. • Po...
Iran fires missiles at US airbase in Qatar—possibly a stage-managed retaliation
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 23 Jun 2025
In the last hour, Iran has been firing missiles at Qatar. This is an evolving situation, but here are some very preliminary thoughts: Of all the potential targets in the region, Qatar and Al-Udeid Airbase are probably the best defended, including with Patriot batteries.The base, which houses up t...
Fast and furious
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Jun 2025
“In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.” — Rudiger Dornbusch In 1992, when asked what the campaign strategy for then-candidate Bill Clinton would be, advisor James Carville famously replied: “It’s the econom...
The Ministry of Finance is expected to propose a 10% cut in tax benefits, the National Energy Policy Council is expected to discuss increasing the ethanol blend in gasoline, and the STF will have a busy week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Jun 2025
In an interview last week, Executive Secretary of the Finance Ministry Dario Durigan said the economic team is expected to present a proposal this week to the presidents of the Lower House and the Senate, as well as to party leaders, calling for a 10% across-the-board cut in tax benefits. Also sc...
The MNB’s tight policy course is vindicated—once again
HUNGARY · Report · 23 Jun 2025
In the past few weeks, this is the second time we are giving this title to a piece of research. The first occasion was when the May inflation data came out with an unexpected rise in the headline rate. But we are coming back to this same conclusion again, after all that has happened, and in view ...
BSP's rate cut justified by large monetary space
PHILIPPINES · Report · 23 Jun 2025
Some segments of business media were quite skeptical about the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) decision last Thursday. The Philippines’ monetary authorities opted to sustain for the second time a 25-basis-point reduction in its policy rate and issued virtual forward guidance that it is prepare...
The GCC and oil market wait to see if Iran will respond to the US strikes
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 22 Jun 2025
Oil futures have begun trading in Asia and, so far, the response is muted. The September Brent contract nearly touched $80 on open, but within half an hour of trading, had eased back to $77 (Inv). There is still nearly $10 of risk premium in there compared with 10 days ago, but it remains close t...
No base rate change is likely at Tuesday's Monetary Council meeting
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Jun 2025
The Council is set to hold its regular monthly rate-setting meeting on Tuesday, June 24. So far this year. all decisions, and indeed all votes within the Council, were for holding the base rate at 6.5%. Last time, on May 27, the Council concluded that neither domestic inflation, nor external cond...
Too many tipping points
TURKEY · Report · 22 Jun 2025 · 2 responses
Turkey and the entire region are at a tipping point. As regards the latter, Trump’s decision to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities opened up several alternative universes, in some of which the world may be struck with an oil shock reminiscent of the 1970s, or a regional war, where Turkey may be force...
GULF WEEKLY: Trump mulls entering war, UAE FDI remains strong, S&P rates UAE, Oman’s GDP picks up in Q1
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Jun 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Israel has air superiority, and Iran’s medium-range missiles are nearly exhausted. * Trump is considering joining the war to bomb the hardened Fordow nuclear site. * The direct impact on the GCC and hydrocarbons remains l...
Kazakhstan macro: the economy reportedly accelerates, prompting forecast upgrades
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 20 Jun 2025
The recently published macroeconomic statistics suggest that the Kazakh economy continued to expand steadily in 5M25, and its rate of growth has reportedly accelerated. One cannot rule out that a weaker tenge helped as the USD/KZT has traded above the 500 mark for several months. This has not onl...
Promises, Promises
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jun 2025
In the end, the Copom opted for a final adjustment to the Selic target rate, raising it from 14.75% to 15.00% per year—an outcome that, while not exactly surprising, was still different from what most analysts (ourselves included) had expected. That said, a significant minority—perhaps one-third ...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: South Caucasus—Winners and losers from the Iran-Israel conflict
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 20 Jun 2025
Two of the three South Caucasian nations directly border Iran, and their initial reaction to the Israel-Iran conflict says a lot about their relative positions vis-a-vis the regional battle. While Armenia categorically condemned the "one-sided attack on Iran", Azerbaijan opted for a restrained rh...