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Webinar replay - India’s role in a reconfigured global economy
INDIA · Report · 27 Jun 2025

Can India seize upon the opportunities created by global trade reconfiguration? How will technological developments like AI impact Indian GCCs and services? How will the domestic economic policy environment impact India's outlook? Watch the replay of webinar featuring Economist Dr. Ajay Shah d...

Bracing for impact
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Jun 2025

Costa Rica’s economic activity continues along the path set in our short-term economic outlook (see our report of April 2025), although deceleration now looks more pronounced. To face the effects of the current international turmoil charged with lots of uncertainty, we expect the government to ma...

The government is looking for alternatives to the IOF tax increase, Haddad will give an interview on this topic, and the STF will hold a public hearing on mandatory congressional earmarks
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Jun 2025

The government is currently evaluating alternatives following Congress’s decision to overturn the IOF tax increase. According to Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, there are three possible paths: identifying new sources of revenue, challenging the overturning of the decree before the Supreme Feder...

Topic of the week - 2Q25 CCA Slide deck
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 27 Jun 2025

The quarterly slide deck for the Caucasus and Central Asia is a 208-slide detailed description of the economic status-quo in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan as of the second quarter of the year. It covers various topics, including growth, economic structure, in...

The House and Senate approved the overturning of the IOF decree, the House also passed a bill that increases the total number of deputies, and the STF discusses the liability of big tech companies
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Jun 2025

Both the Lower House and the Senate have approved a legislative decree overturning President Lula’s executive order that raised the Financial Transactions Tax (IOF)—a symbolic defeat for the administration in Congress that underscores growing dissatisfaction even among allied parties. Yesterday, ...

Economic performance set to stabilize in 2H25
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 Jun 2025

Rosstat reported that in May and 5M25, Russian industrial output grew by 1.8% and 1.3% y-o-y. The mining segment contracted by 1.1% and 2.7%, while the manufacturing grew by 4.0% and 4.2% (y-o-y in May alone and 5M25 in both cases). Even though y-o-y numbers looked unimpressive compared to last y...

Shekel strength supported by fundamentals but may reflect short-term overshooting
ISRAEL · In Brief · 26 Jun 2025

Since the successful military operation against Iran, the shekel has strengthened by nearly 4.5% against the U.S. dollar, reaching its strongest level since the end of 2022. It has also been appreciated by 4.5% against the euro. Chart 1: ILS exchange rate vs USD, EUR, and nominal effective rate T...

Armenia: PM Pashinyan resorts to desperate means to cling to power
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 26 Jun 2025

Pashinyan is getting rid of the opposition. I have spent a lot of time in the last month or so writing about Armenia, and it seems for good reason. The loss in the municipal elections in Gyumri, the rising momentum to impeach Pashinyan, and the PM's ill-fated attack on the Church are a few exampl...

Copom’s odyssey
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Jun 2025

The main purpose of the latest Copom Minutes is to prevent the market from anticipating the beginning of the monetary easing cycle. The concern, naturally, is that market behavior could affect the yield curve and thereby undo part of the monetary tightening promoted by the Central Bank, which bro...

The House may vote to overturn the presidential decree on the IOF, the STF will resume adjudication of the liability of big tech companies, and the CNPE may announce a change in the blends of gasoline and diesel
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Jun 2025

The President of the Lower House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), announced that the House will vote today on a bill to overturn the presidential decree that raised the IOF (Financial Transactions Tax). If the bill does reach a floor vote today, it is likely to pass. The Supreme Federal Court (STF)...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 25 Jun 2025

Jun 11 President: Kazakhstan is ready to supply Slovakia with oil, gas, and uranium. Jun 13 Ministry of Foreign Affairs: The US has expressed its willingness to cooperate with Kazakhstan in the field of critically important minerals. Jun 14 Atomic Energy Agency: Rosatom will lead the consortium f...

Post-ceasefire economic update: recovery, risk, and resilience
ISRAEL · In Brief · 24 Jun 2025

After twelve days of fighting, during which the United States joined the attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, a ceasefire came into effect that is likely to end the war. The war concluded with significant damage to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and missile systems, without deteriorating into a br...

No change in the base rate today - the MNB has become more pessimistic about the inflation outlook
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Jun 2025

Today, the Monetary Council left the base rate unchanged at 6.5% and the interest rate corridor also an unchanged +/-1%-point around the base rate. After the meeting, governor Varga spoke about the main points of the Q2 inflation report, which is set to be presented in detail on Thursday this wee...

Justice Toffoli holds a hearing on compensation for victims of the INSS scheme, Haddad and Padilha address the new SUS program, and the Mines and Energy Ministry may announce new gasoline blend percentages
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Jun 2025

Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Dias Toffoli has scheduled a conciliation hearing for today to address compensation for retirees and pensioners who were victims of fraudulent membership-related deductions from their INSS benefits. Today, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad and Health Minister Al...

Economics: Latest aggregate demand figures reflect contraction in several areas of the Mexican economy
MEXICO · Report · 24 Jun 2025

On Wednesday, June 18, aggregate demand and supply figures for the first quarter of 2025 were released showing that aggregate demand (equal to supply) contracted an annual -0.1% based on original figures. That slippage came mainly in response to a significant drop in gross fixed capital formation...

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