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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

South Africa’s current account remains broadly unchanged in Q3-2024
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Dec 2024

Current account data released by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) today indicates that, in the third quarter of 2024, the deficit on South Africa’s current account narrowed from R75.3 billion in the second quarter to R70.8 billion. Relative to GDP, however, the current account deficit remain...

The reading of Braga’s report on the Tax Reform regulation bill has been postponed, the MDB announced its support for Alcolumbre for Senate president, and the House approved an urgent status for two bills
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Dec 2024

The reading of Senator Eduardo Braga's (MDB-AM) report on the bill regulating Tax Reform has been postponed to next Monday. The vote, as announced by the president of the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ), Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP), has been scheduled for Wednesday, December 11. The Senat...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 05 Dec 2024

The FX market volatility soared in the past two weeks. It was high enough earlier in November, hovering between 5% and 10%. However, at the beginning of December, it jumped to 20%. Sanctions against 52 Russian banks, introduced at the end of last month, brought some complications to the tradition...

The foreign exchange market in the Milei era
ARGENTINA · Report · 05 Dec 2024

This is the second report in a trilogy whose main purpose is to make sense of current market optimism while raising awareness of the risks market participants will face between now and the October 2025 midterm election. The first report dealt with inflation and whether it had converged with a lev...

Bonilla asked to leave at a crucial juncture
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 04 Dec 2024

In light of the accusations regarding Finance Minister Bonilla’s involvement in mishandling public funds to obtain favors from Congress, President Petro asked for his resignation. In the afternoon hours of December 4th, Mr. Bonilla has agreed to do so. The timing could not be worse. The Financing...

More Of The Same
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Dec 2024

GDP growth in the third quarter of the year slightly exceeded expectations, at 0.9%, compared to the second quarter, against analysts' median estimate of 0.8%, with no major revisions to the most recent data. However, 2023 growth was revised upward to 3.2% from the initial estimate of 2.9%. Sh...

Congress won in ill-advised regional transfers plan
COLOMBIA · Report · 04 Dec 2024

Q3 2024 growth at 2% was low in y/y terms, although higher than population growth, the lowest threshold to keep Colombia from getting poorer. Many things stand out. First, there is a base effect, because 2023 GDP growth was low, at -0.6% during Q3, and a very disappointing 0.6% for the year. Seco...

Braga may submit his report on the Tax Reform regulation bill, an urgent status request was submitted for the fiscal package, and Lula has submitted the appointments for the Central Bank directors
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Dec 2024

Today, Senator Eduardo Braga is set to present his report on the bill that regulates Tax Reform, PLP 68/24. The plan is to read the report today in the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ). Yesterday, a request for urgent status was submitted for the bills addressing the spending cut package....

Industrial policy, again
INDIA · Report · 04 Dec 2024

In recent years, there has been a new rise of industrial policy. This has taken multiple forms, such as granting large subsidies, raising protectionist barriers, and providing production-linked incentives in certain sectors. There is also a growing emphasis on backing domestic national champions'...

SA GDP contracts: Stable electricity supply boosts energy-intensive mining and manufacturing in Q3 2024, while agriculture drags growth lower
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 03 Dec 2024

In contrast to the general expectations of modest growth, the South African economy contracted by 0.3% q/q during the third quarter of 2024, following an expansion of 0.3% q/q in the second quarter. Despite a marked improvement in electricity supply, South Africa’s economy remains under pressure,...

Good enough to start?
TURKEY · Report · 03 Dec 2024

Consumer prices rose by 2.2%, m/m, in November, slightly higher than the consensus forecast of around 2%, and our forecast of just under 2%. The 12-month rate nevertheless eased to 47.1% from 48.6% in October. Monthly domestic PPI inflation posted a modest increase of 0.7%, with the 12-month rate...

The STF concludes its ruling on parliamentary fund transfers, Lira meets with party leaders to discuss the fiscal package, and Braga may meet with Haddad to discuss the Tax Reform bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Dec 2024

Today, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) concludes its ruling on the execution of parliamentary fund transfers. Yesterday, Justice Flavio Dino decided to authorize the resumption of payments for these transfers. Today, the President of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), meets with party leaders to dis...

Fast track for the fiscal package and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Dec 2024

The fiscal package on spending cuts begins its analysis in the House. Beyond the content itself, the government is mobilizing to expedite the legislative process by shortening timelines. Eduardo Braga may present his report on the bill regulating the Tax Reform. The Mercosur Summit takes place th...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Dec 2024

OVERVIEW PT TESTS ITS POWER, AND THE COUNTRY BEARS THE COST Even after emerging significantly weakened from the municipal elections, as discussed in the November Fotografia, PT (Workers’ Party) imposed its vision on the final design of the fiscal package, increasing the risks and costs in t...

Politics: Constitutional reforms pose a direct threat to democratic governance
MEXICO · Report · 02 Dec 2024

Barely two months into Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration, it is clear that Morena and its coalition partners are determined to move full speed ahead with the 4T's proposed constitutional reforms, actively backed by the new president. Taken as a whole, the 20 reforms proposed by AMLO (18 constitu...

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